It has often been said that when things are going well we cannot imagine a time when things will go badly. Likewise, when things are going badly, we cannot imagine them going well again. I think we all have seen evidence of this. How many people, when times are good, stack away reserves, saving for a rainy day? And how many people, when times are tough, see that as the time to push the boat out, take a chance, and embrace change? Instead, when times are good we celebrate and when times are bad we circle the wagons and burn the furniture.
It is easy to forget that when all boats are rising, so too are the cost of boats. It is also easy to forget that opportunity costs are often much lower in down economies. Down economies are often the very best time to test business ideas that have been ruminating during the good times but never acted upon because time was such a scarce resource. As sure as the sun rises in the morning, so too the economic pendulum will eventually swing the other way. But instead of allowing a down economy to stifle your growth, use it to accelerate it. Our frustration is poorly aimed if we just focus on the fact that the pendulum exists as there is nothing we can do about that. Our frustration is also poorly aimed if we focus just on when the pendulum might swing next — again, it is not something we can easily influence, but keeping an eye on this is smart. Our focus will always be best employed in thinking about how we can best use the current pendulum state to our best advantage. And every pendulum state offers opportunity.
Wonky 